View Full Version : Hurricane Katrina - II
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5_sm2+gif/084619W_sm.gif
wintersbk
08-26-2005, 04:54 PM
Looks much farther west to me.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL122005mlts.gif
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/forecast/AL122005lts.gif
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_model.gif
Tenn.Guy
08-26-2005, 04:59 PM
unfortunately, the new forecast shows the wind strength increasing to 115 knots by landfall which makes it a weak cat 4. Bummer for wherever it lands--hope they are dead wrong.
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_5day.gif
Satellite Loops
visible (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html)
Infrared (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html)
Water Vapor (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html)
wintersbk
08-26-2005, 05:30 PM
I'm no weatherman but it sure doesn't look like there is anything in those loops that is going to force this thing northward. :idontno:
I'm no weatherman but it sure doesn't look like there is anything in those loops that is going to force this thing northward. :idontno:
I try to glean some of the future direction from the loops but the steering winds are the very high ones which usually don't show on the loops. Sometimes you can see some high clouds on the visible loop.
Travel2Much
08-26-2005, 05:37 PM
Having just made the call to have my SoWal house boarded, now it looks like I might be evacuating to SoWal (from New Orleans) in a day or so.
Hurricane Season. Gotta Love it.
Having just made the call to have my SoWal house boarded, now it looks like I might be evacuating to SoWal (from New Orleans) in a day or so.
Hurricane Season. Gotta Love it.
Head west or north. ;-)
Camp Creek Kid
08-26-2005, 05:48 PM
Check out this link http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Good explanation about Katrina's track. Looks like she is becoming a greater threat to New Orleans. That is very bad. Good news is that Dr. Masters doesn't think she'll reach cat4 because of the dry air from the north. You can see it on Kurt's link of the satellite water vapor loop. The dry air is red.
Having just made the call to have my SoWal house boarded, now it looks like I might be evacuating to SoWal (from New Orleans) in a day or so.
Hurricane Season. Gotta Love it.
As mentioned in another thread, if this thing hits NOLA as a Cat 4...well, I just don't want to think about it.
Maybe they're all wrong and it will continue west straight into Mexico.
tropicwatch
08-26-2005, 06:00 PM
I think they will shift the model tracks back eastward. After the latest forecast tracks came out, Katrina started showing a northward component to its movement. If this continues, the models will definitely shift eastward again.
Model Tracks & Floater Image (http://tropicwatch.info)
After the latest forecast tracks came out, Katrina started showing a northward component to its movement.
Model Tracks & Floater Image (http://tropicwatch.info/)
I don't see it yet - probably a wobble.
4pm CST - KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARDTHE WEST EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PMEDT.
I think they will shift the model tracks back eastward. After the latest forecast tracks came out, Katrina started showing a northward component to its movement. If this continues, the models will definitely shift eastward again.
Model Tracks & Floater Image (http://tropicwatch.info)
Disagree. We need some positive karma here and you ain't providing it, bro.
tropicwatch
08-26-2005, 06:40 PM
I would love for it to go to LA. or even furher west. It might have just been a one time wobble. For those with Knology Channel 29 is a radar channel and is set on Katrina. Watching to see if the trend continues.
Travel2Much
08-26-2005, 06:42 PM
.... Looks like she is becoming a greater threat to New Orleans. That is very bad. ... .
People here (in NOLA) aren't getting worried at all, yet. Very calm. Just watching it to see when it turns N, which would be the real indicator on probable landfall. If it heads any further west, then there will be pandemonium here tomorrow, but SoWal then might be in the clear. It's that last minute right hook it is supposed to do which alarms me. Ivan was like that--was like a bullet towards NOLA, then turned NE the morning b/f.
WaltonUndercurrent
08-26-2005, 07:07 PM
We have a place in the French Quarter in NO that's our second home - a Cat 4 and higher in New Orleans could put water twenty or more feet above our doorstep if the surge from the Lake broke the levies - I don't want it here, but it really doesn't need to go there. Major loss of life, city probably wouldn't be inhabitable for weeks - maybe months. Baad news.
I'm hoping for Mexico or Gary, IN
Travel2Much
08-26-2005, 07:37 PM
We have a place in the French Quarter in NO that's our second home - a Cat 4 and higher in New Orleans could put water twenty or more feet above our doorstep if the surge from the Lake broke the levies - I don't want it here, but it really doesn't need to go there. Major loss of life, city probably wouldn't be inhabitable for weeks - maybe months. Baad news.
I'm hoping for Mexico or Gary, IN
Oh please, let's not start yet with the "hurricane hitting NOLA" scenario. I expect it tomorrow night on the evening news ("Well, Bob, we expect that 1/2 will die from the flooding, and the other half 1/2 will die from exposure after being trapped on their roof for days fending off snakes and alligators..." (with nifty simulations on exactly how this will occur)).
It's that little extra lagniappe that makes Louisiana stand apart from the rest.
We'll start freaking (and/or drinking) in a day or so if this continues. The ax, BTW, is to chop through the roof.
drsvelte
08-26-2005, 07:42 PM
Check this latest GFS projection:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_85v_mu_loop.shtml
Unfortunately, I am in Red Stick right now. Amazingly, there is a lot of complacency here. The TV stations in BR mention a perhaps western shift but not alot of concern. I understand that NOLA TV is about the same. Not good.
It looks like an Andrew wannabe.
lollygal
08-26-2005, 07:43 PM
Disagree. We need some positive karma here and you ain't providing it, bro.
Amen, brother!
WaltonUndercurrent
08-26-2005, 07:54 PM
Well, thanks Travel2Much. I'm well known as an overly dramatic cry baby lose my **** at the first sign of trouble sorta guy. Thanks for slapping me sober. I feel much better now.
aquaticbiology
08-26-2005, 08:32 PM
Finally read the old Katrina thread - best was (paraphrased) "maybe we'll see how the GeoTubes do".
And so, just for kicks (and since there's really nothing we can do about it anyway regardless until Monday AM), and just in case it does hit or affect the area, betting may now begin on the following:
GeoTubes:
1) Missing (and not abducted by aliens thinking they were huge albino cows)
2) Popped (with the appropriate leaking of yecchy fill)
3) Intact (whether or not they did their job of protecting whatever)
GeoTube Impact:
1) Nothing Whatsoever (No worse or better protection, no sand capture)
2) Worse! (This does not include yecchy fill leaks, but washouts behind, etc)
3) Amazing! (It protected the beach and there's sand dunes up to the sky!)
I say:
Five bucks on missing GeoTubes.
and
Five bucks on a popped Tube mess, but the tubes are still there.
Put a drink in those wringing hands and relax until there's more data.
oh yeah, five more on Worse! (almost too relaxed!)
aquaticbiology
08-26-2005, 08:34 PM
And no huge bets on popped Tubes and Navy Seal knife work in the middle of the night, ya'll!
That's it - relax.
pgurney
08-26-2005, 09:48 PM
Here comes a really boring post. Borage, but heartfelt.
Folks, I'd like to point out here that we're not out of the woods. The models have recently shifted west to the Mississippi area, but this type of storm is very hard to predict....both the path and the intensity. Any slight change of path when a recurvature is predicted can amount to a very large difference in landfall location. Please don't get complacent now. This could be a very serious storm and it still has the possibility of turning this way...and it could do that with little warning. Stay on the toes por favor?
Here comes a really boring post. Borage, but heartfelt.
Folks, I'd like to point out here that we're not out of the woods. The models have recently shifted west to the Mississippi area, but this type of storm is very hard to predict....both the path and the intensity. Any slight change of path when a recurvature is predicted can amount to a very large difference in landfall location. Please don't get complacent now. This could be a very serious storm and it still has the possibility of turning this way...and it could do that with little warning. Stay on the toes por favor?
Truer words have never been spoken. I will not begin to relax until it has passed 87 degrees longitude with no significant northerly turn. I imagine I will wake up several times during the night to check position/model changes.
pgurney
08-27-2005, 07:33 AM
Oh no! This is really, really not a good thing. A hit on New Orleans like this would be catastrophic. Keep going west!
Miss Kitty
08-27-2005, 07:47 AM
IMHO...Be careful what you wish for...and remember it's all wishful thinking! I continue to keep an eye on the storm...but, I'm trying my best to not watch TWC!!!
aquaticbiology
08-27-2005, 08:55 AM
Data coming in (at last)
from the data bouy 260 nm South of Panama City, FL
at 26°00'32"N 85°54'50"W:
--------------------
Wind Speed: 33 knots
Gusts To: 38 knots
Wave Height: 20 feet
from the data facility at the PCB fishing pier:
-------------------
Wind Speed: 10 knots
Gusts To: 15 knots
Wave Height: not measured
The hurricane is still way more than 200 miles offshore, therefore computer models can be pretty much ignored, however it seems to generally still want to go to NOLA.
Marine forecast now includes the forboding Ivan-esque statement:
"WINDS AND SEAS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO ADVISORY CRITERIA DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN KATRINA TO OUR SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH."
In other words, contact with the front is what's going to turn Katrina north again, like a bumber on a pinball machine. It wants to keep going west but instead tracks right up the front (deja vu anyone?).
Enough doom and gloom, have a banana and go for a walk on a local beach wherever you are. Thought for today: There is sand everywhere in the world.
Let's hope the magnet doesn't move any closer to us.
http://www.sptimes.com/2004/09/20/photos/FLO_1_td20cntr2-092.jpg
http://www.kevininscoe.com/pub/dennis1.jpg
http://www.kevininscoe.com/pub/dennis2.jpg
Phil Coale AP
Kimmifunn
08-27-2005, 10:48 AM
Word on the street my boyfriend Jim is in Biloxi. :wub:
Looking at the path it looks like y'all should be relatively ok... I know it could change, ect. ect. but from what I just saw Sowal may not get the brunt of it.
You know who is really suffering? Diddy. Because he wants a WHITE carpet at the VMAs. And Katrina ruined that for him. Let's think of him for once. :roll:
Seasider
08-27-2005, 10:54 AM
I heard that Jim stayed over in SoWal last night. I'm glad he moved west early this morning.
Moondance
08-27-2005, 10:55 AM
Word on the street my boyfriend Jim is in Biloxi. :wub: :nono1:
Kimmifunn
08-27-2005, 11:05 AM
Busted! :floor:
seagrovelover
08-27-2005, 11:07 AM
http://www.kevininscoe.com/pub/dennis2.jpg
kurt...where was this picture taken????
Beach Runner
08-27-2005, 11:10 AM
kurt...where was this picture taken????
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution printed this photo on 7/12 and said it was in Destin. They did not say exactly where.
kurt...where was this picture taken????
I don't know it was labeled as Dennis. That is some good engineering and construction. Just too close to the Gulf.
Busted! :floor: Would Flava give Jim a hard time?
Beach Runner
08-27-2005, 12:13 PM
Here's where I first saw the photo - the 7/12 Atlanta paper.
tropicwatch
08-27-2005, 01:41 PM
The question is how soon and how fast will Katrina turn northward. And also will it make one of those right turns before it makes landfall. Earlier it looked like the turn was begining but it still seems almost due west right now.Model Tracks & Floater Image (http://megaopps.8m.com/tropicwatch.html)
SeacrestBabY
08-27-2005, 02:22 PM
Looks like you guys may be clear! I was just there a couple of weeks ago and everyone was still cleaning up the previous hurricane mess. Good luck! ;)
Looks like you guys may be clear! I was just there a couple of weeks ago and everyone was still cleaning up the previous hurricane mess. Good luck! ;)
:welcome:
aquaticbiology
08-27-2005, 06:16 PM
I choose the UKMET model as the best. Completely off the top of my head, no history or anything. After all, I'm not a atmospheric scientist or oceanographer, just a aquatic biologist (formerly marine biologist). Got to keep reminding myself of that. Weather Channel screaming that this one will be as bad or worse than Camille. Hmpf. Hope it goes to Mexico so Jim can go catch something. Anybody in Biloxi we know? Paint up a SOWal sign at least!
aquaticbiology
08-27-2005, 06:34 PM
You are getting SLEEEEEEPY....Look deeeeep into my THIIIIRD EYE...I am a hurricane MAAAGNET!
Miss Kitty
08-27-2005, 07:10 PM
You are getting SLEEEEEEPY....Look deeeeep into my THIIIIRD EYE...I am a hurricane MAAAGNET!
mb451, you are in very good form today!!! That is hysterical and scary at the same time!!! I am boycotting TWC today and it feel so empowering! thanks to the good poster that suggested we revolt!
Smiling JOe
08-27-2005, 08:22 PM
http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/members/images/109659.jpg
Hurricane Katrina Aug 27 2005
Excalibur
08-27-2005, 08:52 PM
WWW.WGTX.COM (http://www.wgtx.com/)
HURRICANE KATRINA
STATEWIDE RESPONSE BRIEFING SHEET
August 27, 2005: afternoon
***The information below represents the best available information at the
time of this release. Floridians are encouraged to contact their local
authorities for additional information as it becomes available.***
County Evacuations
The following evacuations still remain in effect:
· Okaloosa: Voluntary Evacuation
For additional information pertaining to county evacuations, curfews and
re-entry, please contact the local county emergency operations center.
Shelters:
Shelter totals reflect that general and special needs shelters may
coincide.
· 3 Total Shelters: Population Total 233
· 3 General Shelters:
o Broward: 1 Shelter, Population 7
o Miami-Dade: 2 Shelters, Population 226
· There are no patients currently in Special Needs Shelters
For additional information pertaining to shelters, please contact the local
county emergency operations center.
Law Enforcement and Military Support
Florida National Guard: 716
Transportation
Road/Bridge Closures
· All roads on the state road system are open.
Tolls
· Tolls on Florida’s Turnpike have been reinstated in Palm Beach and
Broward counties.
· Effective 6:00 am, toll collection has been reinstated in the
Turnpike's Ticket System Three Lakes Toll Plaza to Okeechobee Road, US
27 in Miami Dade County.
· The Sawgrass Expressway and westbound I-75/Alligator Alley have
also been reinstated.
· Tolls remain suspended on Florida's Turnpike in both directions
from Florida City, MP 1 to Northwest 106 Street, MP 34.
Airports
Public-use airports and military airfields reported as CLOSED:
· Dade-Collier Training and Transition (TNT), Miami-Dade County,
currently closed until further notice
· Key West International (EYW), Monroe County, currently closed
until further notice
· The Florida Keys Marathon (MTH), Monroe County, currently closed
until further notice
· Tyndall AFB (PAM), Bay County, airport closed from 6:30 PM (L)
8/27/05 until 7:00 AM (L) 8/30/05
· Whiting Field NAS North (NSE), Santa Rosa County, airport closed
from 6:00 PM (L) 8/28/05 until 7:30 AM (L) 8/30/05
· Whiting Field NAS South (NDZ), Santa Rosa County, airport closed
from 6:00 PM (L) 8/28/05 until 12:00 AM (L) 8/30/05
Public-use and military airfields in Florida are being reported as "OPEN"
but have operational limitations:
· Duke Field (EGI), Okaloosa County, airport is open to aircraft on
"Official Business Only until 12:00 PM (L) 8/31/05
· Eglin AFB (VPS), Okaloosa County, airport is open to aircraft on
"Official Business Only until 7:00 PM (L) 9/1/05
· MacDill AFB (MCF), Hillsborough County, airport is open to
aircraft on "Official Business Only" for the period 6:00 PM (L) 8/25/05
until 12:00 PM (L) 8/29/05
Water Notices
· None reported at this time.
For county specific information pertaining to areas under boil water
advisories, please contact the local county emergency operations center.
Fatalities Confirmed by Medical Examiner
Total hurricane related fatalities confirmed statewide by the Florida
Department of Law Enforcement:
· Broward County: 4
For more information, please visit www.FloridaDisaster.org (http://www.floridadisaster.org/).
###
HURRICANE KATRINA
POWER BRIEFING SHEET
As of 3 p.m., August 27, 2005
***The information below represents the best available information at the
time of this release. Floridians are encouraged to contact their local
authorities for additional information as it becomes available.***
SUMMARY
After the landfall of Hurricane Katrina in South Florida, close to 746,800
customers across four counties are affected by power outages.
Power outages are affecting approximately 736,800 FPL customers, 9,800
municipal customers and 200 cooperative customers.
COUNTY BY COUNTY BREAKDOWN
BROWARD COUNTY
· 32% of total customers without power.
· Approximately 281,200 of 880,207 FPL customers without power.
COLLIER COUNTY
· 100% of power restored.
DADE COUNTY
· 46% of total customers without power.
· Approximately 455,600 of 968,480 FPL customers without power.
· Approximately 1,800 municipal customers without power.
MONROE COUNTY
· 14% of total customers without power.
· Approximately 200 of 30,952 cooperative customers without power.
· Approximately 8,000 municipal customers without power.
PALM BEACH COUNTY
· 100% of power restored.
# # #
ESF 14 -External Affairs / Public Information Office
Florida State Emergency Response Team
Excalibur
08-27-2005, 08:53 PM
WWW.WGTX.COM (http://www.WGTX.COM)
Please see below information from Louisiana.
----- Forwarded by ESF14/StateEOC/FLEOC on 08/27/2005 06:01 PM -----
Evacuation Information from the State of Louisiana
The state of Louisiana has informed motorists and transportation officials
in surrounding states of the following evacuation route information:
· Interstate 55 has been one-wayed (contra-flowed) north
· Interstate 59 has been one-wayed (contra-flowed) north
· Interstate 10 has been one-wayed (contra-flowed) west
· Interstate 12 has been one-wayed (contra-flowed) west
· Interstate 10 has been closed to westbound traffic at the
Louisiana state line
Motorists are instructed to pay attention to roadway message boards for any
changes in highway conditions.
More information can be found at www.dotd.state.la.us/maps/ or by calling
the Louisiana state Road Information Hotline, 1-800-469-4828.
tropicwatch
08-27-2005, 09:42 PM
Looks like Katrina is a little east and norh of the NHC's center forecast track from 4pm.
East of Track (http://megaopps.8m.com/eastoftrack.doc)
Model Tracks & Floater Image (http://tropicwatch.info)
I choose the UKMET model as the best. Completely off the top of my head, no history or anything. After all, I'm not a atmospheric scientist or oceanographer, just a aquatic biologist (formerly marine biologist). Got to keep reminding myself of that. Weather Channel screaming that this one will be as bad or worse than Camille. Hmpf. Hope it goes to Mexico so Jim can go catch something. Anybody in Biloxi we know? Paint up a SOWal sign at least!I remember, as a kid, driving through Biloxi a year after Camille[1970?], and being amazed at the destruction. Could be wrong, but wasn't that the worst storm to hit the Gulf Coast in the last 50 years???
katie blue
08-27-2005, 11:16 PM
The satellite animation is striking.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
Miss Kitty
08-27-2005, 11:48 PM
I remember, as a kid, driving through Biloxi a year after Camille[1970?], and being amazed at the destruction. Could be wrong, but wasn't that the worst storm to hit the Gulf Coast in the last 50 years???
I think you are correct. We used to vacation at the Broadwater Beach in Biloxi and I remember the destruction as well. I also remember the stories of the people that decided to ride out the storm...not a good choice.
Beachlover2
08-28-2005, 08:03 AM
CAT 5 - This is too sad!!!! :shock: :shock:
Hopefully people are heeding the warnings
aquaticbiology
08-28-2005, 08:18 AM
Only thing I remember about Camille (way back in 1969) was seeing a set of apartment/condos, and all the stuff in them, blown out like so many stacked shotgun shells and being amazed just how far the carpet of crap went.
All the channels are making a field day out of Katrina so we can't be too hard on The Weather Channel (except for where Jimmy is concerned - if you've ever seen his act in person you'd know why-most arrogant person I've ever met-would probably set his own mother's house on fire to get the coverage- although I haven't met Earl in Gulf Trace. There was no The Weather Channel when I was out in Hawaii during Dennis and I actually missed it.
Did anyone else notice the skip in the satellite images from Cat 3 to instant Cat 5 with highly defined eyewall? It's in all the paranoia, I suppose, but what are they trying to hide, hmmmm? (Cue Jimmy broadcasting from the alien spaceship...)
I notice the fishing boats are out in Biloxi (behind Jimmy's head) per usual. Don't know if I'd want to be on one of them seeing as how it's still 240 miles out, and that's over 200 miles and predictability is still not that great until less than 200 miles. Remember Hurricane Bill? Every day they said it would 'have to' make landfall, and it just wandered all over the place for days, but Bill wasn't a Category 5 (not the cable, but the scale). From looking at the excruciatingly slow turn of the track, Katrina still wants to go to Mexico, and I think she should be allowed to go. We'll get those chaperones that went to Aruba to go along so she'll be 'safe'.
Bouy Data:
oh, just get your own, at:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?lat1=25.7N&lon1=87.7W&dist=250&time=3
tropicwatch
08-28-2005, 08:37 AM
Camille
Date Time Lat Lon Winds Pressure
08/18/1969 3:00 AM 29.24N 89.60W 190mph 909mb
Model Tracks & Floater Image (http://tropicwatch.info )
wetwilly
08-28-2005, 08:51 AM
I'm still concerned about the surge damage in SoWal even though the storm is appearing to head quite a bit west of Pensacola. The storm is so large and now 150mph (Cat 5) and moving at 12mph (up from 7-8). If it does hit NOLA, does anyone have a guess at to any damage to the dunes/beaches in SoWal?
How does the surf look now? I'm sure it is picking up. Red flags?
aquaticbiology
08-28-2005, 08:53 AM
You can be of two schools of thought on Katrina (and hurricanes in general):
1) The wringing of hands:
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050828/ap_on_re_us/hurricane_katrina
or
2) The surfing of waves: http://www.mrsurfs.com/surf_report.php
I choose the latter, since a long, long time ago my dad once said about a hurricane: "I dare you to stop it coming this way."
tropicwatch
08-28-2005, 08:57 AM
I'm still concerned about the surge damage in SoWal even though the storm is appearing to head quite a bit west of Pensacola. The storm is so large and now 150mph (Cat 5) and moving at 12mph (up from 7-8). If it does hit NOLA, does anyone have a guess at to any damage to the dunes/beaches in SoWal?
How does the surf look now? I'm sure it is picking up. Red flags?
Law Enforcenment in Walton County are reporting 10ft waves and the sand that was replenished after Dennis has washed away.
aquaticbiology
08-28-2005, 09:10 AM
And finally, before I take my morning walk on the beach (next to a really big lake) I'd just like to say:
MMM - MM - MMMM - MMMM - MMMMMMMM! There's that lovely empty beach again with no backhoes or bulldozers or chairs or tents or cars...
I LIKE IT! Show's you what common-sense legislation and beach renourishment by dredging can do.
Moondance
08-28-2005, 09:11 AM
Law Enforcenment in Walton County are reporting 10ft waves and the sand that was replenished after Dennis has washed away.I hope this is not the case, but I have no reason to doubt the info... Keep in mind that a given storm can be either "net negative" or "net positive" in terms of sand deposits. An example of both in one shot, courtesy of kurt, is below (keep your fingers crossed for "net positive"):
http://www.sowal.com/050712-dennis-267.jpg
wetwilly
08-28-2005, 09:38 AM
Yeah we need the "net positive" to come to SoWal after this one blows thru. If the info is true and the post Dennis sand deposits are already gone, then we only hope that thru the next few days the during/after storm surge deposits some same sand up on the beaches of SoWal.
BTW, even if this storm hits NOLA, it looks like the areas of east of it (Mobile, Gulfshores, Pensacola, Navarre, Ft Walton, and even Destin) will get the wicked eastend kick on this one.
I just hope the folks in the NOLA and Miss area are heeding this warnings. They have turned all lanes out of the gulf coast of Miss and LA North to to try and get the people out. NOLA is below sealevel and that makes for a big problem as this looks like a direct hit based on the tracks now.
whiteyfunn
08-28-2005, 09:51 AM
can anyone figure out why when even a cat 3 comes to SoWal there is a mandatory evacuation and then I just heard on the news that Katrina is a cat 5 and there is only a voluntary evacuation for the NOLA area
Someone enlighten me!!!
wintersbk
08-28-2005, 09:55 AM
I just got word they are reporting 20' - 25' waves in the panhandle once this storm nears NOLA? Can this be? :confused:
Those models they just showed did not look good. Please all, stay safe!
Miss Kitty
08-28-2005, 09:57 AM
News has been reporting all morning that they are just waiting for the Mayor of NO to announce the mandatory evacuation....what is he waiting for?
Smiling JOe
08-28-2005, 09:57 AM
Kurt has been out in the field, and just called with a live report from Grayton Beach and Gulf Trace. At Grayton, water is up to the boardwalk. We are still about 36 hours from Katrina making landfall. In Gulf Trace, water is up to the Gulf-front houses, and is about to cover the geotubes and the piles of broken concrete. [Those houses will not be there tomorrow afternoon in my(SJ's) opinion.]:( It is going to be rough.
tropicwatch
08-28-2005, 09:59 AM
News has been reporting all morning that they are just waiting for the Mayor of NO to announce the mandatory evacuation....what is he waiting for?
He is waiting for his advisors to give him the results of an opinion poll. Who knows what he is waiting for!?
Miss Kitty
08-28-2005, 10:01 AM
He is waiting for his advisors to give him the results of an opinion poll. Who knows what he is waiting for!?
His waiting might cause utter pandemonium...I am so worried about those people!
whiteyfunn
08-28-2005, 10:06 AM
Oh, and I know this is off the subject...but it makes me laugh.
I got into an argument yesterday with someone from NOLA. They thought that the safe side of a hurricane was the east side (or the right side). And, we all know that is NOT right! I explained Ivan's path...blah blah blah it hit Gulf Shores... that's how Pensacola was destroyed...blah blah blah. She didn't get it.
I just hope everyone can get to safety in time.
katie blue
08-28-2005, 10:11 AM
Seacrest area: At 8 am, with tide about 4 hours past high mark, intermittent waves were lapping the bottom 1-2 feet of the walkovers and beginning to eat at the new/scraped dunes. Debris beginning to collect on the berm. We're packing up and heading out. Much love and luck to all, catch you on the other side.
wetwilly
08-28-2005, 10:11 AM
I saw the mayor of NOLA on the news last night (11pm et) and I could not believe that they were just under a voluntary evacuation. Then I was in disbelief this morning when they still had not gone to mandatory evac. My only guess is that they have some timelines and guidelines for escalation to mandatory. Also, they probably are trying not to cause a total panic. One big issue I heard about today was that there are many people in NOLA that do not have any personal transportation (car, truck). Not a good situation at all based on the size, strength, and expected rainfall associated with this storm.
Sounds like from SJs report of Kurt's field recon that SoWal beaches and dunes are going to get a big dose of mother nature even though this storm is much further west than Dennis. I just saw a report that said Katrina will affect 170 miles along the gulfcoast because of its size and strength. This beast came out of nowhere and the "little" Cat 1 that hit SOFLA is now expected to be worse than Camille in size and maybe strength.
Thoughts and prayers go out to all along the gulf coast especially NOLA. Unbelieveable. :bang: :bang: :bang:
beachmouse
08-28-2005, 10:20 AM
Discussion on the storm2k.org boards is that it hasn't been mandatory yet because of legal reasons- the mayor has no actual authority to close down the hospitals and hotels. I guess the laws are different there.
wetwilly
08-28-2005, 10:35 AM
Kurt has been out in the field, and just called with a live report from Grayton Beach and Gulf Trace. At Grayton, water is up to the boardwalk. We are still about 36 hours from Katrina making landfall. In Gulf Trace, water is up to the Gulf-front houses, and is about to cover the geotubes and the piles of broken concrete. [Those houses will not be there tomorrow afternoon in my(SJ's) opinion.]:( It is going to be rough.
SJ,
Thanks for the up to the minute info on SoWal and how the area is doing while Katrina churns up the gulf. Being remote watching TWC and looking at weather web sites does not give us the real story. Thanks to you, Kurt and all of the locals for the posts. I just saw a picture of the Pensacola pier and the wave action there is getting very rough.
Keep the reports coming (even if they are not positive) and please stay safe and keep out of harms way. This board will be our only direct lifeline to SoWal until we drive down this Friday for the Laborday weekend. We hope the dunes and beach are still there for us to enjoy but we (me, wife, and 3 boys) will look to volunteer and do cleanup duty if/where needed.
Thanks again.
pgurney
08-28-2005, 10:50 AM
I just got word they are reporting 20' - 25' waves in the panhandle once this storm nears NOLA? Can this be? :confused:
Those models they just showed did not look good. Please all, stay safe!
Wave forecast:
http://facs.scripps.edu/surf/images/caanim.gif
Travel2Much
08-28-2005, 10:59 AM
News has been reporting all morning that they are just waiting for the Mayor of NO to announce the mandatory evacuation....what is he waiting for?
That he just did is indicative that we who live in NOLA are all ******.
The reason why New Orleans doesn't do mandatory evacuations, from what I have heard, is that it is impossible to evacuate the city, really, even with contraflow. I think there is some legal reason following from that (responsibility for harm due to telling people to go who can't go? Dunno, never figured it out). Plus, there are no shelters. The Red Cross won't go anywhere South of I-12. The city-run "shelters" he just announced are pretty grim not to mention only marginally safer than your house.
Everyone who lives in NOLA knows Nagin's "voluntary evacuation" means "get out quickly if you can". That's what I did last night.
But, the reality is that there will be 100s of thousands of people left in the city, I would bet. New Orleans is very poor. Many can't just hop into their SUV.
futurebeachbum
08-28-2005, 11:00 AM
From the Nat'l Hurricane Site -
<a href=http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastint.shtml>Record Hurricanes </a>
Camille was second at 909 mB
Andrew was third at 922 mB
As you look at this, I just heard on the Weather Channel that Katrina is at 175 mph and 904 mB. Ouch!
And there is nothing to slow it down until it reaches land.
sarawind
08-28-2005, 11:03 AM
The mayor of NO and the governor of LA. are amazing in their
idiocy. The President of the United States had to call that
sputtering woman that is govenor urging for mandatory evacuation
of NO. That said, I'm not able to find out what is predicted for
South Walton. I'm in Texas now and so worried about wave height,
surge and all that goes with it for our beautiful SoWal. God bless us
all on the Gulf Coast
sarawind
08-28-2005, 11:13 AM
Station 42003 - E GULF 260 nm South of Panama City, FL., buoy quit reporting info after midnight. Waves were around 30 feet. Appears as if the storm has taken this bouy out. I have a sickening feeling that this monster strorm may
taken an eastern turn and that is not good news for us.
WaltonUndercurrent
08-28-2005, 11:13 AM
Back to my earlier post that Travl felt was too dramatic but evidently wasn't. It's sad. Most of the people who live in the city don't have the ability to evacuate - many don't have automobiles and use public transportation and those that do won't have the money for gas and other expenses associated with evac. Hopefully, if it's as bad as the worse scenerios, the Federal government will really dump all their resources in putting the city back together and repairing al the historic structures. Hopefully, also they Feds will work with the state to finally come up with solutions to help prevent this from happening again.
I'll volunteer to help afterwards because I love the City and it's history.
Excalibur
08-28-2005, 11:31 AM
WWW.WGTX.COM (http://www.wgtx.com/)
We Obviously are facing a Extremely Dangerous situation, although at this point not as bad as LA and MS. the storm could possibly hook right a little east and change some of the equation.
WGTX AM 1280 - Nobody is mentioning this so I will be the first to do so. :!: GET GAS! :!: If Katrina Hits LA and MS that is where our area gets all of it's gas, the refineries will be closed or shut down, and the waterway route from there to here will be clogged with Debris and no barge would be able to get through!
:!: GET GAS :!:
Miss Kitty
08-28-2005, 11:35 AM
SJ,
Thanks for the up to the minute info on SoWal and how the area is doing while Katrina churns up the gulf. Being remote watching TWC and looking at weather web sites does not give us the real story. Thanks to you, Kurt and all of the locals for the posts. I just saw a picture of the Pensacola pier and the wave action there is getting very rough.
Keep the reports coming (even if they are not positive) and please stay safe and keep out of harms way. This board will be our only direct lifeline to SoWal until we drive down this Friday for the Laborday weekend. We hope the dunes and beach are still there for us to enjoy but we (me, wife, and 3 boys) will look to volunteer and do cleanup duty if/where needed.
Thanks again.
You are definitely in the right place on this board. I am fairly certain that I can speak for everyone who has used this board as an info gathering tool during past storms that Kurt, SJ and other selfless locals are our heroes! These people have a very special place in my heart...they really want us to know what is going on and care so much for the area that I feel calm when they post any info! Bless SoWal and it's caretakers!!! You guys rock!
As reported the surf is already up to the walkovers and close to the dunes. Almost all the sand that was scraped at Seaside into big piles is gone already and the winds are still out of the east. When they turn and start onshore we will have serious problems I'm afraid. Photos to come later today.
God Bless the city of New Orleans.
Moondance
08-28-2005, 12:04 PM
You are definitely in the right place on this board. I am fairly certain that I can speak for everyone who has used this board as an info gathering tool during past storms that Kurt, SJ and other selfless locals are our heroes! These people have a very special place in my heart...they really want us to know what is going on and care so much for the area that I feel calm when they post any info! Bless SoWal and it's caretakers!!! You guys rock!Kurt, SJ, others, all:
We are hanging on every word and every scrap of info. Please keep the info and precautions coming, but stay safe and make good decisions. I know you will, and your experience and insight is invaluable to the rest of us.
We can not thank you enough... but "Thanks."
Excalibur
08-28-2005, 12:23 PM
WWW.WGTX.COM (http://www.WGTX.COM)
EOC
KATRINA.NOW EVEN STRONGER.CONTINUES TOWARD THE NO. CNTL
GULF COAST AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE PANHANDLE COAST FROM
DESTIN EASTWARD TO INDIAN PASS.
AREAS AFFECTED.
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTION TO BE TAKEN FOR RESIDENTS OF THE
EASTERN FL PANHANDLE COAST.INCLUDING COASTAL WALTON.BAY &
GULF COUNTIES.
WATCH & WARNING INFORMATION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM EAST OF DESTIN TO INDIAN
PASS IN GULF COUNTY FL. THIS MEANS TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HRS.
STORM INFORMATION.
AT 10 AM CDT.EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE KATRINA WAS
CENTERED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 DEGREES NORTH.LONGITUDE 88.1 DEGREES
WEST.OR ABOUT 225 MILES SO. SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MS RIVER. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 315 MILES SO. SW OF
PANAMA CITY FL. KATRINA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NW AT 12
MPH. THE MAX SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 175 MPH. THIS
MAKES KATRINA A VERY DANGEROUS & DESTRUCTIVE CATEGORY FIVE ON THE
SAFFIR SIMPSON HURRICANE INTENSITY SCALE. THE MIN CNTL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 907 MILLIBARS. WHILE IT IS DIFFICULT TO
FORECAST INTENSITY CHANGES OF MAJOR HURRICANES.SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING MAY BE POSSIBLE. KATRINA CONTINUES TO EXPAND HER WIND
FIELD. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS NOW EXTEND OUTWARD TO 205 MILES.
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF KATRINA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE FL PANHANDLE.THE EXPANDING WIND FIELD AND
THE POSSIBILITY THAT KATRINA MIGHT MAKE LANDFALL A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE EAST THAN EXPECTED COULD BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE LATER TODAY & MONDAY.
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS.
RESIDENTS ALONG THE COAST OF THE WARNED AREA SHOULD PREPARE FOR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. SECURE LOOSE ITEMS SUCH AS GARBAGE
CANS.PATIO FURNITURE OR OTHER ITEMS THAT COULD EASILY BE PICKED UP
BY GUSTY WINDS. TAKE APPROPRIATE STEPS TO PROTECT AGAINST COASTAL
FLOODING.ESPECIALLY SINCE SO MUCH SAND WAS WASHED AWAY BY
HURRICANE DENNIS LAST MONTH. LOW LYING AREAS & LOCATIONS ON BAYS
AND INLETS WILL BE EVEN MORE PRONE TO COASTAL FLOODING. BE PREPARED
TO EVACUATE IF LOCAL EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ORDER AN EVACUATION.
STORM SURGE FLOOD & STORM TIDE IMPACTS.
HIGH SURF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON AS LARGE SWELLS EMANATE FROM
HURRICANE KATRINA. LAW ENFORCEMENT IN WALTON COUNTY HAVE REPORTED
WAVES UP TO 10 FEET IN THE SURF ZONE.WHICH HAS CAUSED MUCH OF THE
REPLACEMENT SAND FOR HURRICANE DENNIS TO BE WASHED AWAY. THE SURF
WILL ONLY GROW LARGER AS KATRINA APPROACHES THE CNTL GULF COAST.
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA WILL PRODUCE TIDES OF 4
TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE PANHANDLE. THESE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES
AND HIGH SURF WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION & COASTAL FLOODING THROUGH
MONDAY.ESPECIALLY AROUND & AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. THE BEACHES
OF WALTON COUNTY WERE CLOSED AS OF 8 AM CDT TODAY. THE FOLLOWING ARE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS.
APALACHICOLA.924 AM EDT SUN & 1037 AM MONDAY.
SAINT ANDREWS BAY AT PANAMA CITY.618 AM CDT MONDAY.
EAST PASS AT DESTIN.648 CDT MONDAY.
WIND IMPACTS.
THE EASTERN FL PANHANDLE WILL BE ON THE EASTERN EDGES OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. THIS
WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.MAINLY IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH KATRINA. SUCH WINDS TYPICALLY
CAUSE SEVERAL DOWNED TREE BRANCHES.A FEW DOWNED POWER LINES &
POWER OUTAGES.TIPPED OVER GARBAGE CANS & PATIO FURNITURE & A
FEW UPROOTED TREES.
RAINFALL & FLOOD POTENTIAL.
THE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TODAY THROUGH TUES IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES.WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURRING FARTHER
WEST. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING & POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
HOWEVER.WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
TORNADO THREAT.
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
RIP CURRENTS.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EVERYONE.INCLUDING EXPERIENCED SWIMMERS.SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
SURF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATL
WEATHER SVC IN TALLAHASSEE BY 300 PM EDT (200 PM CDT).
$$
38-GODSEY
Excalibur
08-28-2005, 12:25 PM
WWW.WGTX.COM (http://www.WGTX.COM)
MEDIA ADVISORY - STATE BUILDING CLOSURES
~ Please share with local affiliates ~
TALLAHASSEE - The approach of Hurricane Katrina has necessitated the
closure of the following DMS pool facilities effective August 29, 2005:
Escambia County
James Building
160 Governmental Center
Pensacola, Florida 32501
Agencies impacted: DEP, DOE, DCF, APD, AHCA, FDLE, DMS
The Department of Management Services closes DMS Pool Facilities in
affected counties during disaster/emergency situations based on; local
government's decision to close offices, mandatory evacuation notice for
the area or declaration of a local state of emergency. Office closures
for non-pool facilities will continue to be left to the discretion of
the agency head in the affected areas.
For more information, please log on to the Florida Division of Emergency
Management's website at www.FloridaDisaster.org
<www.FloridaDisaster.org> .
# # #
Please note: Florida has a very broad public records law. Most written
communications to or from state officials regarding state business are
public records available to the public and media upon request. Your e-mail
communications may be subject to public disclosure.
Travel2Much
08-28-2005, 12:27 PM
Back to my earlier post that Travl felt was too dramatic but evidently wasn't....
Nope, didn't feel it was too dramatic, rather as a long-time NOLA resident know the story cold, as most do. It is really disconcerting, living in NOLA, to have the national media sensationalizing the potential harm when you are living there. We don't need the tv drama, just want to save our lives and stuff.
People in NOLA are taking this very seriously.
TooFarTampa
08-28-2005, 12:37 PM
Kurt, SJ, others, all:
We are hanging on every word and every scrap of info. Please keep the info and precautions coming, but stay safe and make good decisions. I know you will, and your experience and insight is invaluable to the rest of us.
We can not thank you enough... but "Thanks."
I could not have said it better. Thanks you guys and stay safe.
T2M and all of New Orleans ... you are in my prayers.
wetwilly
08-28-2005, 12:39 PM
TWC is doing a big, very informative (non sensationalizing) story on NOLA and Hurricanes and their issues. They are stating that the pumps in the city of NOLA can pump an inch a minute but with a slow moving Cat 4/5 they will be overwhelmed.
Dr Steve Lyons and others are saying that the best case scenario for NOLA is if it hits just east of NOLA. The biggest issues is with the lake on one side, the river on the other and the city being below sealevel that the hit is one thing but then the rains and flooding will be the paramount issue.
Big time flooding and health issues in the aftermath is the bigger long, term issue. Now they are showing Gulfshores, Al and they are stating the "beaches are gone..." but they just restated that everyone and everything is off of the beach "NOT THAT THE BEACHES ARE GONE". The surf looks 6-8 ft swells.
As said, all of us in remote northern areas are praying for all on the Gulf especially NOLA. Stay safe and take all precautions.
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