Hurricane Katrina - I

[Miss Kitty]

Coming to a gulf near you! I remember someone discussing the possible good effects from a storm out in the gulf for our beaches. Can someone elaborate? Please let this storm go west...

[JB]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5_sm2+gif/084619W_sm.gif

A little too close for comfort if you ask me. Yes, an indirect brush from a tropical system can bring more sand on the beaches. But as we saw with Arlene, there is a fine line between a "brush" and a "hit."

I would just as soon not take our chances with Katrina.

[Smiling JOe]

... a small storm could help push sand back onto the beaches in most cases. I am really concerned that the scraping of the beaches has lowered the build up so much that even a small storm could wipe the beaches clean, instead of building it back up. In areas where they scraped, there is not much height on the beach, making the reinforced dunes more exposed to the Gulf waters.

[PC]

My Wife and I are almost sick about this, we are heading down to Watercolor tomorrow for our yearly trip to Sowal. We feel for the people who live down there to have to go through so many of these things. Lets just all pray that it moves further west and south.

[mhasper]

Looks like another disaster in the making for South Walton. National Hurricane Center now has it as a direct hit, and as a hurricane.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_5day.gif

"Outlook valid 29/1200z 29.0n 86.0w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt." That 75 mph, folks. And it could be higher too.

[Bob]

... a small storm could help push sand back onto the beaches in most cases. I am really concerned that the scraping of the beaches has lowered the build up so much that even a small storm could wipe the beaches clean, instead of building it back up. In areas where they scraped, there is not much height on the beach, making the reinforced dunes more exposed to the Gulf waters.Smiling Joe is right! Scraping might best be done after the Hurricane season. The beaches may look even more barren after this next storm. So what's going on here? Are they scraping to reestablish dune lines, or trying to save our vocal gulf-front owners homes? Whatever happens, Walton County officials may need ear protection for coming meetings with the public.

[JB]

Looks like another disaster in the making for South Walton. National Hurricane Center now has it as a direct hit, and as a hurricane.

Boy, aren't you a positive thinker :roll:

It is WAY too early to predict landfall location with any degree of accuracy.

[pgurney]

Boy, aren't you a positive thinker :roll:

It is WAY too early to predict landfall location with any degree of accuracy.

Especially with this one. Look at the huge cone that map shows. The hurricane models are all over the place with Katrina.

[Smiling JOe]

Boy, aren't you a positive thinker :roll:

It is WAY too early to predict landfall location with any degree of accuracy.

Maybe mhasper is planning for the worst and praying for the best.

If Pensacola is "targeted" again, how do you think the General Mgr for Pensacola Beach will respond to the question of why Mother Nature is targeting Pensacola? Last time he responded on National television that, "Mother Nature is a Motha."

[JB]

No, he/she sounds like a classic doom and gloomer, and almost seemed to take delight in posting that news. BTW here are the latest models.

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_model.gif

[Smiling JOe]

Come on Orange line.

[CastlesOfSand]

Orange is a great color!!! I vote orange too! Lets just pray that will be the case!

[pgurney]

I'm voting for the purple.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

[Miss Kitty]

Darn...early this am it looked like a brush by on the way west. I have learned to sit tight and check in with my pals on SoWal.com. Thanks for being there!!!

[PC]

Where do you guys get these models at, I cant find them, but I am stupid also so.....

Thanks

[Beachlover2]

One I use is nhc.noaa.gov

[pgurney]

This site has a good compilation of information:

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

[mhasper]

No, he/she sounds like a classic doom and gloomer, and almost seemed to take delight in posting that news. BTW here are the latest models.


Not true, my friend. Why would I want to see the most gorgeous beaches in the world get even more destroyed than they already are? I just wanted to post that forecast quickly and concisely to give you all as much time to prepare as possible, especially with the very weakened state of your beaches. I'll be praying for the best over the next few days and hope a) it somehow weakens and doesn't hit anyone, or b) it hits somewhere unpopulated and less vulnerable.

Prepare for the worst (with more certainty than of course can be garnered from current forecasts...because by the time the forecast has sufficient certainty, sometimes it is too late to prepare).

[drsvelte]

Where do you guys get these models at, I cant find them, but I am stupid also so.....

Thanks

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

[Miss Kitty]

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/

I used that one as well...and just deleted it last week thinking surely our neck was out of the woods.

[Beach Runner]

Come on Orange line.
You know I love that orange, even though that path is bad for Gainesville. :( All of the paths are unfortunately bad for someone.

[lollygal]

You know I love that orange, even though that path is bad for Gainesville. :( All of the paths are unfortunately bad for someone.

Orange is a very good color!

GO VOLS!! (Couldn't resist!) :laughing1

[Bluznbeach]

Well, it didn't take long for somebody to come up with the obvious lead for the storm story...the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes, "South Floridians won't be walking on sunshine when Katrina and her waves crash ashore later this week." ;-)

I always liked that song, but my favorite of theirs was "Red Wine and Whiskey." I'll need some of both as I watch the Weather Channel this weekend. Take care and be safe, y'all.

[Smiling JOe]

earl, you better load up the cattle trailers with all your crap. I hear a storm may be making some new Gulf front homes in your hood. If it does hit, and I hope it does not, we will see how well those plastic dunes hold at Lee Perry's house in Gulf Trace. I have a feeling that we will be looking at orange clay soon.

[Miss Kitty]

If it stays to the east of us, that would be better...right? Isn't there a good/bad side? Each storm that has hit in the last two years has come in to the west...except Cindy? Education time.

[Beachlover2]

Usually the chant is West is best - east is beast - to the west of the storm is better.

[wetwilly]

West may be "best" as it relates to the worst of the surge and a "hit" but I am afraid with the beating the SoWal dunes/beaches have taken in the past 12-14 months that being anywhere in the "cone" is not going to be good.

I vote for orange or purple (sorry to the people in those paths). We are hoping for the best and that the TS just dies (not likely) but at worst it helps push more sand up onto the SoWal beaches :clap_1: :clap_1: :clap_1:

It looks like we will know by Monday evening.

wetwilly :cool:

[Miss Kitty]

Usually the chant is West is best - east is beast - to the west of the storm is better.

Thanks... that's what I remembered! These days I am having a hard time locating some info in the ol' lobes!

[wetwilly]

Just got this off of the web....www.crownweather.com/tropical


"....THE GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT KATARINA WILL TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A NOTABLE SPREAD. TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A SPREAD OF LANDFALLS IN FLORIDA FROM THE KEYS TO NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AFTER CROSSING FLORIDA.....

THE COLD TOPS AND THE INNER WIND CORE SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF STRENGTHENING. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR KATRINA TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. KATRINA SHOULD WEAKEN WHILE SLOWLY CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...THE RE-INTENSIFY UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO."

If it goes northward to hit Lake Okeechobee we will be west of the hit but this storm seems "flaky" and moving very slow (8 mph) and anything is possible at this point. If it stay as a slow moving storm, it will produce alot of rain (based on what the Dr said last night on the weather channel).

[Sea Star]

Orange is a very good color!

GO VOLS!! (Couldn't resist!) :laughing1
:clap_1:
Way to go Lollygal! I was thinking the same thing when I saw your post.

Here's hoping Katrina stays on the east coast and heads north. Will be down in October and don't want it to be any worse than it already is - hot temps, biting flies, crowds, etc. :biggrin:

[Smiling JOe]

West may be "best" as it relates to the worst of the surge and a "hit" but I am afraid with the beating the SoWal dunes/beaches have taken in the past 12-14 months that being anywhere in the "cone" is not going to be good.

I vote for orange or purple (sorry to the people in those paths). We are hoping for the best and that the TS just dies (not likely) but at worst it helps push more sand up onto the SoWal beaches :clap_1: :clap_1: :clap_1:

It looks like we will know by Monday evening.

wetwilly :cool:

I don't remember which storm shot up throught Mexico Beach area last year, but during that storm, the sun was shining in SoWal and the wave action was slim to none. Maybe that is why I cannot remember the storm's name.

[pgurney]

Just so there's no confusion, the purple line has moved from going out in the Atlantic to hitting west of us. My vote is no longer with purple!

For anyone interested, this link (http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15) is to a forum for weather professionals and enthusiasts. You can get a little more in depth information than the NHC provides most of the time. It can get a little hard to read because these folks get hyped up about and look forward to big storms.....they see it from a completely different perspective than we do.

[beachmouse]

All the models seem to have been trending eastward for the past day, and almost all of them seem to be saying somewhere between Tyndall AFB and mouth of the Suwannee River for a second Gulf of Mexico Landfall. So not too bad for SoWal, but the already erosion prone Cape San Blas could take some damage, and if you're an Apalachicola Bay oyster fan, grab some of them now, since they're smack in the line of the cone right now.

[Excalibur]

Stay Tuned to WGTX AM 1280 and WWW.WGTX.COM for Complete Up to the Minute Weather Advisories, Live NEXRAD RADAR, and Hurricane Katrina Forecast Maps.

WGTX is tracking Hurricane Katrina as it impacts South Florida and enters the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Katrina is forecast to impact the Florida Panhandle on Monday. WGTX AM 1280 will have backup Broadcast power in place throughout the storm's potential impact.

[EZ4144]

Why can't I pick up your station on 30A? I need more conservative true patriot americans voices in my car.

[Excalibur]

You can pick us up in most places on 30A right now, and we are DOUBLING our FCC Licensed Broadcast Power in the very near Future. This will give us crystal clear coverage all of the way up and down the coast and 25 miles out to sea.

You can also listen to the Live Webstream at www.wgtx.com

[FoX]

Wasn't it Seaside Radio that spammed the board during the last hurricane? :razz:



That's a mighty harsh lineup of programming you got there wgtx - lookin' to scare some people outta their shoes so they'll be to scared to leave the house and keep tuning in?

[Smiling JOe]

EZ4144, you know you can volunteer to DJ at the 30-A radio station?

[Moondance]

EZ4144, you know you can volunteer to DJ at the 30-A radio station?You GO boyyy! I bet Sweet Al would love to have The Earl on his show. Maybe it could start with an interview of The Earl? He could expose the flaws in our thinking and the error of our ways. How about a debate featuring The Earl and Comm. Meadows?

Excellent programming idea...:clap_1:

[Excalibur]

The Talk Programming is for just Certain Day Times. Right Now Till 9:00pm we play Rock n' Roll Oldies............

[Smiling JOe]

The Talk Programming is for just Certain Day Times. Right Now Till 9:00pm we play Rock n' Roll Oldies............

During the live coverage, will you have reporters on the Beach get sanded, like Jim Catchatori for TWC?

[Miss Kitty]

I thought this was some station from TX...TEXAS!!!? And yes, we do have stations that broadcast with W and K...big state I guess.

[Smiling JOe]

I thought this was some station fron TX...TEXAS!!!?

Or Georgia Tech.

[Miss Kitty]

Or Georgia Tech.


Dude..you are fast! That makes sense!!! I don't get out too much!

[Excalibur]

Nooooooooooo we are not from Texas - the Broadcast Tower is just south of DeFuniak. I also am a resident of SoWal.

What do you think "The Heartbeat of the Panhandle" means - that we are in the Texas Panhandle?

[Excalibur]

Smiling Joe, since I live here in Blue Mountain, of course we can report from the Beach - we do it everytime. We were the only station that Broadcast all of the way through Hurricane Ivan last year.................. :clap_1:

[Miss Kitty]

Nooooooooooo we are not from Texas - the Broadcast Tower is just south of DeFuniak. I also am a resident of SoWal.

What do you think "The Heartbeat of the Panhandle" means - that we are in the Texas Panhandle?

Oh my...cut me some slack here. I asked a question. I did not even know about your station or it's "The Heartbeat of the Panhandle" slogan. ?...are there any other states besides FL, TX, and OK that have panhandles? This TX gal loves FL and TX...even OK some days!

[SoWalSally]

Smiling Joe, since I live here in Blue Mountain, of course we can report from the Beach - we do it everytime. We were the only station that Broadcast all of the way through Hurricane Ivan last year.................. :clap_1:

Was anyone listening? I don't think I have AM on my radio. Ever thought about podcasting?

[Excalibur]

Yes, Arbitron showed about 100,000 people listened during Hurricane Ivan. We were heard from Pensacola to Panama City along the coast and from Century, Fl past Marianna up into Dothan and Ozark Alabama.

Podcasting should be enabled in less than a month.

Thanks for your suggestions.

PS Sueshore, slack has been cut. :D

PSS I am originally from Texas..................But for the past decade and as far as I can see into the future SoWal is where I live. :clap_1:

[tropicwatch]

I think we will see landfall between Panama City and Pensacola. That seems to be the middle area between the eastern most models and western most models. Of course this all depends how far west Katrina moves in the GOM and when it starts a northward turn.
Model Tracks & Floater Image (http://tropicwatch.info)

[seagrovelover]

Please KATRINA leave the dunes alone!!!!!! and all of our sowal buddies :wub:

[Excalibur]

Yes, I agree. Hopefully we can have some Good Luck :laughing1 and have it hit somewhere to the east of SoWal.

(Not to wish harm on anybody else)

PS This site is awesome, don't ya'll agree?

[Lady D]

I live in Memphis, Tennessee and my husband and I are supposed to be at Inlet Beach September 3rd through the 10th. I have been following the weather channel report on Katrina and know they are showing a projected path dead on for the panhandle Monday, although I do not know how they can predict where exactly it will hit four days in advance. And they say that the storm is going to be stronger than the one that hit South Florida today. Would appreciate any post updates after landfall Monday from anyone living in the area if it does affect the panhandle as to how bad it was and how things look along the beaches. We are staying on Walton Magnolia Lane off of Walton Lakeshore Drive just outside of Bay County. Thanks.

[Excalibur]

Log on Here or at www.wgtx.com you can also listen to the broadcast Live on the web. We will have all of the information you need, i.e., any damage reports, power outages, beach status, road closures; boil water notices, business and school closings, recovery efforts, ect. Since we are a FCC licensed Media Broadcast outlet we will be given all of the pertinate information directly to disemenate to the public; especially from FEMA and the EOC here in Walton, Okaloosa and Bay Counties. We operate as a mouthpiece for them in times like this and coordinate our efforts with them directly.

I will do my best to get with Kurt and see about also direct posting any and all information we get from the EOC or other Government Offices - FEMA, Florida Emergency Management, Gov. Office, ect. that we get to inform the public here as well. We will help you in anyway we can.

Let's just hope that this misses us and we all can just relax on this.

[Kimmifunn]

Let's hope this stud doesn't roll in town for Katrina... :wub:

[amylouky]

Let's hope this stud doesn't roll in town for Katrina... :wub:

Is it terrible that there's a TINY part of me that looks forward to hurricane season, just so's I can watch TWC? :wub:

[Kimmifunn]

Oh...Between Jim Cantore and Mike Bettus...whoa momma. They are so hot. Even Anderson Cooper does it for me during hurricane season! :wub:

[Moondance]

Let's hope this stud doesn't roll in town for Katrina... :wub:There's maybe something you should knooowww... (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Twice in one day?? Come on, MD...:bang:

[Kimmifunn]

There's maybe something you should knooowww... (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Twice in one day?? Come on, MD...:bang:


What? :idontno:
I'm confused! :idontno:

[Smiling JOe]

That track is not looking too good in my opinion.

[Moondance]

Just in case you haven't seen it, here is the mac daddy, one-stop-shop for tropical info (I got it on this board months ago):

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL12

Is there a similar/better site? If so, please post.

[Smiling JOe]

Just in case you haven't seen it, here is the mac daddy, one-stop-shop for tropical info (I got it on this board months ago):

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL12

Is there a similar/better site? If so, please post.

I may have to go back to school to follow all of the technical stuff on that sight. Much of their info appears to be coming from NOAA.gov (www.noaa.gov), so why not go directly to the source?

[Kimmifunn]

Wow...hopes it skips over y'all. If not, just do what Auburn fans do before a new season. Hold your breath. Expect for the worst...hope for the best. And as opposed to ESPN Game Day with Kirk Herbstriet and Lee Corso, you get the Weather Channel with Dr. Steve Lyons and Mike Bettes. And commercials or time outs are like "Local on the 8's".

[Moondance]

I may have to go back to school to follow all of the technical stuff on that sight. Much of their info appears to be coming from NOAA.gov (http://www.noaa.gov/), so why not go directly to the source?
Yeah but...
Well, see...
It's like this...
You just...
It's just one...

Whatever, SJ... Damn! :bang:

[Excalibur]

THIS DOES NOT LOOK GOOD. The Latest Computer Models...:bang:

www.wgtx.com (http://www.wgtx.com/)



http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_model.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/252108.shtml?)

[Excalibur]

WWW.WGTX.COM (http://www.WGTX.COM)


Here is the latest::(

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5_sm2+gif/084602W_sm.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144605.shtml?5day?large)

[TooFarTampa]

:eek:

:blink:

:bang:

Not good at all.

[tropicwatch]

Live in Panama City and places west of us, all the way to Pensacola have just been beaten to death during the last year. I really can't believe what I am seeing. Another landfall by potentially Major Hurricane. Next year Texas its your turn, we need a break.

Model Tracks & Floater Image (http://tropicwatch.info)

[JB]

All I can say is, UNBELIEVABLE :eek:

I wake up this morning, go straight to the NHC site, then to wunderground. All the models are now in agreement in the storm making landfall right around SoWal.

Did we make a deal with the devil at some point? This area can't take another storm.

[TooFarTampa]

Jeff Masters' Wunderblog says Cat. 3 or possibly 4 by Saturday. Panhandle is, he said, a hurricane magnet. Every computer model has it headed our way. :(

[pgurney]

I just have no words.....and no tools either. I'm down here once again without my tools for getting ready for this. Now for the third set of power drills/screwdrivers, etc.

[pgurney]

Jeff Masters' Wunderblog says Cat. 3 or possibly 4 by Saturday. Panhandle is, he said, a hurricane magnet. Every computer model has it headed our way. :(

On the positive side of this.....Cat 4's have a hard time getting past the shallow water of our coast. There's not enough warm water to fuel them so they often decrease down to Cat 3 as they approach.

[wetwilly]

IMO Cat 3 or 4 does not much matter at this point. SoWal dunes and beaches can't take anymore from either a Hurricane or TS. I'm only hoping that it will turn east and we are west or that it blows quite a bit west and hits more than 85 miles west of us. Eitherway, SoWal does not need any surge cuz I fear it will damage an already fragile area.

Like many others we are just hoping and in shock when we look at the predicted tracks. It did not slow down much over land, it was mostly over the everglades, and they say the warm water of the gulf is going to fuel this to a pretty strong storm.

Unreal but continuing to think positive mental thoughts. Hope all of the locals stay safe and take proper precautions over the next several days. We will be sticking close to sowal.com for more info.

[Miss Kitty]

I'm sorry friends...my heart and prayers are going out for you all. One thing I know for sure...do what you need to do to secure things and make GOOD decisions on whether to STAY or not. I wish I were there to help.

SCAT KAT! You are not needed or wanted here!

[Ocean Lover]

My heart just breaks reading this stuff. I hope and pray Kat moves away from SoWal. Like Kimmi said prepare for the worst but hope for the best. You locals and visitors all be safe and my thoughts and prayers are with you.

:twisted: Scat Kat! :twisted:

[Camp Creek Kid]

Its time to start praying--even you non-religious folk out there. Can't wish the storm on anyone else so pray that it just falls apart!!! This is unbelievable, but we'll get through it.

[Lois]

Just got this off the web: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD PATH TAKEN BY KATRINA OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...ITS CENTER SPENT ONLY ABOUT SEVEN HOURS OVER LAND...AND MUCH OF THAT TIME OVER THE RELATIVELY MOIST EVERGLADES. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND THE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT... KATRINA DID NOT WEAKEN ALL THAT MUCH OVERNIGHT...

...EMERGING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM MIAMI AND KEY WEST STILL DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONE... WITH STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUING JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH STILL QUALIFIES AS SOMEWHAT OF AN EYEWALL...
KATRINA IS REASSIGNED HURRICANE STATUS WITH INTENSITY OF 65 KT.

...ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT KATRINA WILL BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SEEMS EVEN MORE LIKELY NOW GIVEN ITS CURRENT STRENGTH EMERGING AGAIN OVER WATER. AS KATRINA MOVES FARTHER NORTH IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD ONLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DOMINATES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO... IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT KATRINA COULD ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.

:blink:

[Beachlover2]

My son and his girlfriend are staying at our place until Monday - I guess it is time to make the phone call and tell them to look into getting flights out soon.
I would rather have them shorten their vacation than take the risk.

[Smiling JOe]

CJ, I may be taking your dog on a road trip. We'll see. Don't worry, he will be in good hands if we bug out. I guess it is time to go fill up on supplies just in case.

CJ, you may consider extending your trip. I don't mind dog sitting a few more days, esp given the circumstances.

[TooFarTampa]

CJ, I may be taking your dog on a road trip. We'll see. Don't worry, he will be in good hands if we bug out. I guess it is time to go fill up on supplies just in case.

SJ, Kurt, Camp Creek Kid, and all of you locals ... stay safe. Thoughts and prayers are with you and your pets (stay with Ryan, Shotsy!) all the way.

[jtnkelly]

We were in Seagrove post Arlene / Pre Dennis. I feel soooo sorry for you folks down there. I work for an electric utility in TN. Our internal weather folks, who subscribe to numerous private services, says NHC's 11 am update will shift Katrina's track further west/south from the 5 AM track, and project a Cat 3 at landfall. The speed at which Katrina meets up with a frontal boundary moving southeast will determine where it hits the coast. :(

[Smiling JOe]

We were in Seagrove post Arlene / Pre Dennis. I feel soooo sorry for you folks down there. I work for an electric utility in TN. Our internal weather folks, who subscribe to numerous private services, says NHC's 11 am update will shift Katrina's track further west/south from the 5 AM track, and project a Cat 3 at landfall. The speed at which Katrina meets up with a frontal boundary moving southeast will determine where it hits the coast. :(

Perhaps you can give us an update at 11am.

[bsullie]

Guess it's time to roll out the welcome mat for Jim Cantore. :bang: :bang:

[Smiling JOe]

Guess it's time to roll out the welcome mat for Jim Cantore. :bang: :bang:

My guess is that Jim will be in Pensacola and Mike Bettes will be in PCB. :lol: None of them will come to SoWal to report because they cannot get out when they need to.

[Moondance]

My son and his girlfriend are staying at our place until Monday - I guess it is time to make the phone call and tell them to look into getting flights out soon.
I would rather have them shorten their vacation than take the risk.FYI, we were down before Dennis. We got the evacuation "order" Friday afternoon before the Sunday landfall. My sister was SCHEDULED on a Saturday flight at noon CT out of VPS (Eglin) that was cancelled. Don't wait... Even if you have flights and an exit plan, it could get disrupted.

Locals know this, visitors take heed: GET GASOLINE. You'll have a helluva time evacuating on fumes (trust me, I learned the hard way). Also, 331 is not the only way north (try 79) and I-10 is not the only E-W route (try US 90). Finally, for those hanging around but eventually leaving, the 331 bridge closes at winds of 40MPH (right SJ?).

Anyway, do your bidness and leave if you're leaving. Locals have much to do... Stay safe and think good thoughts.

[Moondance]

Guess it's time to roll out the welcome mat for Jim Cantore. :bang: :bang:kimmifunn...?

[newyorker]

I am heartsick thinking about yet one more hurricane...and the damage yet again to the most beautiful place I know. (My office computer's wallpaper is a gorgeous pix we took of the beach when we were down a few weeks ago.)
Our thoughts and prayers are with all you ....let's hope that at least the eye hits further east than Sowal.
Godspeed to everyone.

[Beach Runner]

Any news about any mandatory evacuations? We are thinking about driving down tonight and boarding up tomorrow. Is anyone boarding up yet?

[Kimmifunn]

kimmifunn...?

Mats, wigs, high heels, lipstick, duct tape... :laughing1

[CastlesOfSand]

I'll be watching and praying for you guys! Take care!

[amylouky]

There's maybe something you should knooowww... (not that there's anything wrong with that).

Twice in one day?? Come on, MD...:bang:

Nooo... he's married with kids... although, I guess that's not a definite no.

Not that I care anyway, he's fun to look at, no matter.

[Kimmifunn]

Nooo... he's married with kids... although, I guess that's not a definite no.

Not that I care anyway, he's fun to look at, no matter.


Agreed. :D
Something about a man who can hold his own in a storm.

[amylouky]

And.. by the way.. regarding Katrina..

YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!!!!!!!!! ANOTHER ONE?????? ARRRRRRRRRRRRRGH!!!!!!!! :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

Ahem. We now return you to your regularly scheduled amylouky.
Please, everyone down there stay safe, I'll be keeping my fingers, toes, hair, eyes, and anything else I can crossed for ya.

[RiverOtter]

And.. by the way.. regarding Katrina..

YOU HAVE GOT TO BE KIDDING ME!!!!!!!!! ANOTHER ONE?????? ARRRRRRRRRRRRRGH!!!!!!!! :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

Ahem. We now return you to your regularly scheduled amylouky.
Please, everyone down there stay safe, I'll be keeping my fingers, toes, hair, eyes, and anything else I can crossed for ya.

I am LMOAO!!! :floor:

[jtnkelly]

000
Wtnt42 Knhc 261506
Tcdat2
Hurricane Katrina Discussion Number 12
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Am Edt Fri Aug 26 2005

Recent Data From An Air Force Recon Aircraft Indicates Katrina's
Central Pressure Is Much Lower...now At 971 Mb. Maximum 700 Mb
Flight-level Winds Are 81 Kt In The Northwest Quadrant...which
Supports At Least 70 Kt Surface Winds. However...the Aircraft Has
Not Sampled The Winds In The Eastern Semicircle Where Noaa/key West
Doppler Radar Velocity Data Indicates Winds As High As 91 Kt At
Around 3000 Ft...which Would Support A Surface Wind Estimate Of
About 75 Kt. The Initial Intensity Of 70 Kt May Turn Out To Be A
Little Low.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 265/6. Radar Data Indicates Katrina
Has Continued To Move South Of Due West During The Past 6 Hours.
Most Of The Nhc Model Guidance Indicates The Track Should Flatten
Out In A More Westward Direction During The Next 12 Hours As The
Influence Of An Inverted Trough Over The Caribbean Sea Decreases.
The Mid-level Subtropical Ridge To The North And Northwest Of
Katrina Is Forecast By The All Global And Regional Models To
Gradually Weaken Through The Forecast Period As A Strong Shortwave
Trough Over The Central U.s. Digs Southeastward Toward The Northern
Gulf Of Mexico And Southeastern United States. The Timing Of The
Erosion Of The Ridge And An Induced Northward Motion Of Katrina Is
The Main Difference Between The Models...which Has Resulted In A
Large Spread After 48 Hours. The Nogaps And Gfdn Models Have Made A
Large Jump To The West Over Louisiana...whereas The Majority Of The
Nhc Models Take Katrina Inland Over The Northeast Gulf Coast. The
Official Forecast Track Remains In The Right Portion Of The Model
Guidance Envelope.

Strengthening To A Major Hurricane Is Expected. In Fact...a Recent
Dropsonde Report Received From The Reconnaissance Aircraft
Indicates Maximum Winds Are Now Up To 80 Kt. So...a Special
Advisory Will Be Issued Shortly To Update The Current And Forecast
Intensities.

[grartist]

This relentless pounding the past year is devastating!! They say Katrina is now a Cat 2 and may even make a Cat 4!!!!

Im up here in Ohio and my family and I are working on re-locating to the Destin-SouthWalton area very soon. Our friends think we are crazy!!!!
But they have never been to the area and once you visit you never want to leave!!!!! Well we are still coming down...hurricanes or not!!!!

Our prayers are with all of you...keep safe!!!!!

[katie blue]

Lordy.

Well, i'm down here til the weekend. guess we might throw up a board or two after all. or maybe just go the the red bar. we are getting really good at the art of denial...

[Smiling JOe]

Any news about any mandatory evacuations? We are thinking about driving down tonight and boarding up tomorrow. Is anyone boarding up yet?

Some people never took them down.

[kathydwells]

Lordy.

Well, i'm down here til the weekend. guess we might throw up a board or two after all. or maybe just go the the red bar. we are getting really good at the art of denial...

Hey Katie, I think the Red Bar idea is best. That is what I would do if I were down there.

[Kimmifunn]

Hey Katie, I think the Red Bar idea is best. That is what I would do if I were down there.

Agreed. I would chain myself and you try and watch that b*tch Katrina take away my bar! Over my dead body! :pissed:

[Excalibur]

WWW.WGTX.COM (http://www.wgtx.com/)

This Really STINKS - :( THE LATEST FROM NHC

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL

TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE KATRINA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY DISCUSSION IS ONLY TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. RECENT DROPSONDE DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 83 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST EYEWALL. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 971 MB ALSO CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 88 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KT...OR 100 MPH.

GIVEN THE RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE AND THE SHARP PRESSURE DROP...RAPID INTENSIFICATION SEEMS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO NEAR CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BY 72 HOURS APPEARS TO BE IN ORDER GIVEN THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS BENEATH THE HURRICANE AND THE VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 48 HOURS. :shock:



FORECASTER STEWART



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INITIAL 26/1530Z 25.1N 82.2W 85 KT

12HR VT 27/0000Z 25.2N 83.1W 90 KT

24HR VT 27/1200Z 25.5N 84.3W 95 KT

36HR VT 28/0000Z 26.2N 85.2W 100 KT

48HR VT 28/1200Z 27.1N 85.9W 105 KT

72HR VT 29/1200Z 29.5N 86.3W 110 KT :nono1:

96HR VT 30/1200Z 34.5N 83.5W 35 KT...INLAND

120HR VT 31/1200Z 40.5N 77.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND

[Smiling JOe]

WGTX1280AM,
I tried tuning in to you this morning but mostly received static. Are there any areas that you know pick up better reception than others?

[JB]

The Nogaps And Gfdn Models Have Made A
Large Jump To The West Over Louisiana...

While I am not taking much comfort in this, NOGAPS and GFDN have historically been the most accurate models. Right now, it looks as if there is no way the stom will hit east of us, so we need to pray it hits as far west of us as possible. South Louisiana would be the best scenario, as it is a largely unpopulated area.

[Beach Runner]

Some people never took them down.
We didn't have a choice. We had renters coming in, and obviously they wouldn't want their views obstructed by plywood. We'd like to get permanent shutters, but with 73 windows/doors to cover, it's just too expensive.

[Smiling JOe]

We didn't have a choice. We had renters coming in, and obviously they wouldn't want their views obstructed by plywood. We'd like to get permanent shutters, but with 73 windows/doors to cover, it's just too expensive.

SIMPLIFY:D

http://www.nnvl.noaa.gov/images/109652_m.jpg
Hurricane Katrina taken Aug 26 2005

[Miss Kitty]

73!!!! WOW...how long does it take to board them up? I am now counting the windows in my house here....that must be one heck of a house!!!

[Tenn.Guy]

While I am not taking much comfort in this, NOGAPS and GFDN have historically been the most accurate models. Right now, it looks as if there is no way the stom will hit east of us, so we need to pray it hits as far west of us as possible. South Louisiana would be the best scenario, as it is a largely unpopulated area.


I hope this does not offend any locals, BUT I disagree with the quote above--

A South Louisiana hit would likely be disastrous. A large hurricane that comes relatively close to New Orleans could result in a flood of "biblical" proportions in NO due to its below sea level elevation. The loss of wetlands to the ocean is already staggering in S. Louisiana, they don't need to lose anymore.

While I definitely don't want another hurricane to hit the Florida peninsula, from an economic and human misery perspective, a hit from Destin or any point eastward for a couple of hundred miles would be much less disastrous than a direct hit on NO or another direct hit on Mobile or Pensacola. From the Destin area east/southeastward to Tampa, there is less industry and population effected than areas to the West.

I am praying the darn thing will meet up earlier than expected with the cold front and the storm will not live up to the potential it currently seems to have. I don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere. But, it seems to me that it would be much better to hit an area populated primarily with second/vacation homes than come close to or directly hit a large city.

[kurt]

Wanting it to hit here or there is a pointless pursuit.

New Orleans will get a big one someday and it will be horrible.

[Smiling JOe]

I hope this does not offend any locals, BUT I disagree with the quote above--

A South Louisiana hit would likely be disastrous. A large hurricane that comes relatively close to New Orleans could result in a flood of "biblical" proportions in NO due to its below sea level elevation. The loss of wetlands to the ocean is already staggering in S. Louisiana, they don't need to lose anymore.

While I definitely don't want another hurricane to hit the Florida peninsula, from an economic and human misery perspective, a hit from Destin or any point eastward for a couple of hundred miles would be much less disastrous than a direct hit on NO or another direct hit on Mobile or Pensacola. From the Destin area east/southeastward to Tampa, there is less industry and population effected than areas to the West.

I am praying the darn thing will meet up earlier than expected with the cold front and the storm will not live up to the potential it currently seems to have. I don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere. But, it seems to me that it would be much better to hit an area populated primarily with second/vacation homes than come close to or directly hit a large city.

Good Points. No one want it to hit anywhere, but we should hope for the least damage possible, even if it means taking one here in Walton Co.

[JB]

I hope this does not offend any locals, BUT I disagree with the quote above--

A South Louisiana hit would likely be disastrous. A large hurricane that comes relatively close to New Orleans could result in a flood of "biblical" proportions in NO due to its below sea level elevation. The loss of wetlands to the ocean is already staggering in S. Louisiana, they don't need to lose anymore.

While I definitely don't want another hurricane to hit the Florida peninsula, from an economic and human misery perspective, a hit from Destin or any point eastward for a couple of hundred miles would be much less disastrous than a direct hit on NO or another direct hit on Mobile or Pensacola. From the Destin area east/southeastward to Tampa, there is less industry and population effected than areas to the West.

I am praying the darn thing will meet up earlier than expected with the cold front and the storm will not live up to the potential it currently seems to have. I don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere. But, it seems to me that it would be much better to hit an area populated primarily with second/vacation homes than come close to or directly hit a large city.

Perhaps you need to read more closely before replying. I did not say I wanted it to hit New Orleans. You are correct in that a direct hit by a Cat 3 or 4 on New Orleans would be a disaster of biblical proportions. I have many friends there.

I said SOUTH Louisiana. There is no good place for a hurricane to hit. No matter where it does hit, there will be damage. I understand the wetlands issue there - perhaps better than you do. But the area IS largely unpopulated. That is an undisputible fact.

Sorry, but it is someone's else's turn to get one of these storms. Maybe it will continue due west into Mexico. Maybe it will peter out. Who knows?

[Camp Creek Kid]

I hope this does not offend any locals, BUT I disagree with the quote above--

A South Louisiana hit would likely be disastrous. A large hurricane that comes relatively close to New Orleans could result in a flood of "biblical" proportions in NO due to its below sea level elevation. The loss of wetlands to the ocean is already staggering in S. Louisiana, they don't need to lose anymore.

While I definitely don't want another hurricane to hit the Florida peninsula, from an economic and human misery perspective, a hit from Destin or any point eastward for a couple of hundred miles would be much less disastrous than a direct hit on NO or another direct hit on Mobile or Pensacola. From the Destin area east/southeastward to Tampa, there is less industry and population effected than areas to the West.

I am praying the darn thing will meet up earlier than expected with the cold front and the storm will not live up to the potential it currently seems to have. I don't want a hurricane to hit anywhere. But, it seems to me that it would be much better to hit an area populated primarily with second/vacation homes than come close to or directly hit a large city.


One of the most stressful things about these storms is knowing that if it doesn't hit you, it will hit somewhere and someone else. It is inappropriate to make judgements about where it would be good or bad for the storm to hit. Not all the homes here are second/vacation homes and it IS offensive to locals that you believe it would be better for the storm to hit here than somewhere else.

I agree that it would be a very bad thing for the storm to hit New Orleans.
It would also be a very bad thing for it to hit here because right now, I'm thinking of my family, neighbors, and community and wondering how our life will be different on Tuesday.

I know many people who have felt very guilty about being relieved when Ivan and Dennis didn't make a direct hit on us. Why don't we all keep our opinions to ourselves and not talk about the advantages and disadvantages of landfall in a specific area. It is pointless.

[Smiling JOe]

I think that several of you have summed it up nicely, the storm will go where it gets the fuel. Saying where it is best to hit is pointless without having control over the direction of the storm. If we focus on the things which we can control, we will have a more purposeful life.

[Seasider]

It is going to be a long weekend watching the computer tracking models as the march of this thing turns northward towards our beaches.

[Camp Creek Kid]

I need to get busy getting ready, but one more thing. I'm boycotting the national media's hurricane coverage (including the Weather Channel--sorry Jim) Stick with the local guys--WMBB might have their streaming again, don't know. The national coverage always portrays these storms like its doomesday. Its like the boy who cried wolf. All they do is incite panic and stress. We've all got plenty of time to take care of business and get out if we choose.

[kurt]

I need to get busy getting ready, but one more thing. I'm boycotting the national media's hurricane coverage (including the Weather Channel--sorry Jim) Stick with the local guys--WMBB might have their streaming again, don't know. The national coverage always portrays these storms like its doomesday. Its like the boy who cried wolf. All they do is incite panic and stress. We've all got plenty of time to take care of business and get out if we choose.

I'm glad you posted that. I think it was talked about a little the last time how they loop the stress.

Have you noticed the new WC intro has a few secs of people getting blown away? :roll:

[pgurney]

It looks like the UKMET and GFS models also just shifted west.

[Tenn.Guy]

Perhaps you need to read more closely before replying. I did not say I wanted it to hit New Orleans. You are correct in that a direct hit by a Cat 3 or 4 on New Orleans would be a disaster of biblical proportions. I have many friends there.

I said SOUTH Louisiana. There is no good place for a hurricane to hit. No matter where it does hit, there will be damage. I understand the wetlands issue there - perhaps better than you do. But the area IS largely unpopulated. That is an undisputible fact.

Sorry, but it is someone's else's turn to get one of these storms. Maybe it will continue due west into Mexico. Maybe it will peter out. Who knows?


I thought New Orleans was in South Lousiana???

Also, it would be much better for the storm to hit on the east side of NO than the west side where they would get the biggest storm surge.

I do agree that we shouldn't wish these storms on anyone and that was really the point I was trying to make. Sorry about all you locals having to sweat another one out. But, there were numerous posts wishing that the storm would hit somewhere else. Why would you wish the storm on someone else. The area that can take the hit best from a broader economic standpoint is the eastern panhandle of Florida.

[wintersbk]

The area that can take the hit best from a broader economic standpoint is the eastern panhandle of Florida.


I'm not so sure that is true based on the volume of storms the panhandle has had to endure over the last 2 years.

[JB]

I thought New Orleans was in South Lousiana???

By definition, the area known as "South Louisiana" constitutes the marshy area to the south of, and between, Houma and Lake Charles. South of that area, there is nothing but marsh for 50 miles to the gulf.

For the record, I don't want it to hit ANYWHERE in the continintal U.S. If it does, however, I would just as soon it be somewhere, ANYWHERE other than here.

I think you'll find that is the predominant opinion of this board.

[RiverOtter]

I'm not so sure that is true based on the volume of storms the panhandle has had to endure over the last 2 years.

Past 2 years. Try the past 12 freakin months :bang: :bang: :bang:

[Miss Kitty]

Deep breaths everyone...it is stressful and anxiety makes us all on edge. Try and keep your thoughts on those that live in these areas and hope they have the strength to secure things and get where they need to be. You cannot wish for this storm to "hit" one place or another. Nature does what it wants and we will have to adapt. Here's to our friends...God speed.

[beachmouse]

Eglin AFB and Duke and Hurlburt Fields have gone to Hurricane condition four. I'm expecting to hear all the planes going out some time late tommorrow unless the track changes a lot.

I'm still racing Sandestin triathlon tommorrow morning. After that, we're not sure what we've going to do yet. Probably make sure all the clothes and dishes are washed.

[Denise]

Just so there's no confusion, the purple line has moved from going out in the Atlantic to hitting west of us. My vote is no longer with purple!

For anyone interested, this link (http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showforum=15) is to a forum for weather professionals and enthusiasts. You can get a little more in depth information than the NHC provides most of the time. It can get a little hard to read because these folks get hyped up about and look forward to big storms.....they see it from a completely different perspective than we do.


Thanks for the link - great info!

[kathydwells]

UGHH!!!!!:(

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5_sm2+gif/150802W_sm.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150802.shtml?5day?large)

[Denise]

I live in Memphis, Tennessee and my husband and I are supposed to be at Inlet Beach September 3rd through the 10th. I have been following the weather channel report on Katrina and know they are showing a projected path dead on for the panhandle Monday, although I do not know how they can predict where exactly it will hit four days in advance. And they say that the storm is going to be stronger than the one that hit South Florida today. Would appreciate any post updates after landfall Monday from anyone living in the area if it does affect the panhandle as to how bad it was and how things look along the beaches. We are staying on Walton Magnolia Lane off of Walton Lakeshore Drive just outside of Bay County. Thanks.


My company manages a property there - will post an update on the area as soon as we check things out. Or you can contact me personally.

[ShallowsNole]

UGHH!!!!!:(

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT12/refresh/AL1205W5_sm2+gif/150802W_sm.gif (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/150802.shtml?5day?large)
:eek: We pulled that up at the office a few minutes ago. That doesn't look promising at all.

But, in reality it hasn't turned northward yet... :confused:

[Beach Runner]

Deep breaths everyone...it is stressful and anxiety makes us all on edge. Try and keep your thoughts on those that live in these areas and hope they have the strength to secure things and get where they need to be. You cannot wish for this storm to "hit" one place or another. Nature does what it wants and we will have to adapt. Here's to our friends...God speed.
Exactly. I remember before Dennis when one person on the board was so stressed that she said things she didn't mean and later issued several apologies. Let's all be nice to each other and realize that some people might say things they don't mean out of stress and anxiety. Just take a deep breath and be understanding before you post something that might hurt or offend another.

[pgurney]

:eek: We pulled that up at the office a few minutes ago. That doesn't look promising at all.

But, in reality it hasn't turned northward yet... :confused:
The NHC track will change at 5pm. All the models have shifted west since 11am. My guess is the NHC will move to around the Mississippi area.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?t=m&image=AL122005

[Tenn.Guy]

Exactly. I remember before Dennis when one person on the board was so stressed that she said things she didn't mean and later issued several apologies. Let's all be nice to each other and realize that some people might say things they don't mean out of stress and anxiety. Just take a deep breath and be understanding before you post something that might hurt or offend another.

Sorry to have caused any ill will. Stay safe everyone.

[Rita]

The NHC track will change at 5pm. All the models have shifted west since 11am. My guess is the NHC will move to around the Mississippi area.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?t=m&image=AL122005

Thanks for posting this link again. I know River Otter had it up yesterday somewhere else, but now I don't have to hunt!

[Camp Creek Kid]

Sorry to have caused any ill will. Stay safe everyone.

No ill will caused. :cool:

[JB]

The fact we are even having another hurricane thread is beyond belief. No wonder people are stressed and short-tempered.

This reminds me of attending a baseball game and getting struck by a foul ball. What are the odds? 1 in 100,000? So you go to a game month later, only to be struck once again by a foul ball. A year later, you attend another game, only to get popped AGAIN. That is exactly what this reminds me of.

[Joe]

National Hurricane Center has shifted track much further west toward MS as of 5 PM:


http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512.gif

[JB]

That new track is only about 40 miles further west than Ivan's landfall location. We all saw what that storm did to SoWal.