Joe

Well it appears we have our first Tropical Depression which is forecast to become a tropical storm by tomorrow...

kurt

kurt

kurt

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2005/s2447.htm

As the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season gets underway, NOAA today introduced a new way to follow specific tropical storms or hurricanes. NOAA Storm Tracker will contain live links to advisories, tracking maps and satellite images of a particular storm that is projected to strike the United States or other nations in a storm’s path.

seagrovelover

that Image of the day is pretty cool

Landlocked

Is this depression expected to grow before it comes our way? (Haven't had much time for the weather channel recently)

__________________
I know I don't get there often enough,
but God knows I surely try
It's a magic kind of medicine,
that no doctor could prescribe.

Smiling JOe

At 8:00am this morning it grew into Tropical Storm Arlene, and is expected to hit land as a tropical storm with windspeeds around 30-40 mph.

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Landlocked

That's not too bad. Maybe it will give things a nice washdown.

__________________
I know I don't get there often enough,
but God knows I surely try
It's a magic kind of medicine,
that no doctor could prescribe.

Smiling JOe

I am sure the surfers will be happy to see it coming.

__________________

beachmouse

Forecast models tracks seem to be saying MS coast.



Right now, it looks more like a rainmaker than anything else. Just as long as it doesn't pull a Allison or Danny style stall out in a bad place.

Landlocked

That's good. Maybe I won't be swimming in seaweed soup next weekend

__________________
I know I don't get there often enough,
but God knows I surely try
It's a magic kind of medicine,
that no doctor could prescribe.

sunshine79

let's hope it doesn't do too much damage before we've even normalized everything from the last hurricane season

Smiling JOe

This is NOAA's most recent map. It will automatically update as time passes.
We should not have much to worry about if Arlene contiunues as forcasted. Remember, the main line is not necessarily the path of the storm. Rather, you should look at the cone.

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seagrovelover

does something like this get rid of the seaweed or pull more in??

kurt

It depends on the prevailing winds, but in general a good storm will bring all kinds of fun stuff onshore, sometimes including debris from Caribbean and Mexican coasts.

Seasider

Would a smaller storm, as this one appears to be, have a positive effect of pushing sand back up on the beaches?

Also, any chance of getting the webcam back up this year?

Paula

This morning's Wall Street Journal had an article about hurricane forcasting. It said, "Its [NOAA] forecast, issued this week, says there is an 86% chance that landfalling hurricanes will put 2005 in the top one-third historicallyl, with two to five intense hurricanes. The Colorado team agreed, upping an earlier forecast to eight hurricnes, half of which would be whoppers with sustained winds above 110 m.p.h." The article also said, "Get used to it. Surface temperatures in the Atlantic have been elevated since 1995, relative to an historical average that goes back 150 years, notes NOAA's Stanley Goldenberg. From 1995 to 2000, the number of hurricanes almost doubled from the historical norm." Sounds like another interesting year...

__________________
Paula

Smiling JOe

Yes, smaller storms should put more sand on the beach.

We are waiting on RiverOtter, the person with the most posts other than Kurt, to purchase a place on the Beach to house the web cam, but he tells us that we may be waiting a while.

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JB

The NHC is now saying Arlene could be a minimal hurricane when it makes landfall Saturday night. Looks like it could come ashore anywhere from PCB to Gulfport. Y'all batten down the hatches!

Smiling JOe

If you look at the NOAA map which I posted above, you will notice that as of 4pm today (Fri), the maximum sustained winds are 65 mph, only 9 mph less than a hurricane. At the moment in SoWal, winds have kicked up a notch and I can definitely sense a storm on the horizon.

(Waterman, I may have to take a "raincheck" for lunch.)

__________________

kurt

DeFuniak Springs, FL – Today, officials from the Walton County Emergency Operations Center (EOC) gathered to coordinate efforts and discuss issues pertaining to Tropical Storm Arlene.



*A tropical storm warning and hurricane watch is in effect along the Gulf Coast. Arlene is moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph. A flood watch is also in effect because of the potential for heavy rainfall.



Forecasters anticipate wind gusts in our area to reach 40 mph, or higher once the storm approaches and rainfall will be in the 3 to 5 inch range, with heavier amounts possible. This could cause flooding of low lying areas. If the storm follows the project path the storm surge will be about 1 to 2 feet. If Arlene makes landfall further east the storm surge could reach 4 feet, which could cause beach erosion and some coastal flooding.



The Emergency Operation Center is expected to go into partial activation tonight at 8 pm and will remain in activation until the storm has cleared the area. At that time, a citizen’s information line will be set-up at the EOC to assist concerned citizens. The emergency citizen’s information can be reached at 892-8392 or 892-8394 after 8pm. The Emergency Operations Center number is 892-8065.



As a precaution, Walton County is declaring a Local State of Emergency and issuing a Volunteer Evacuation Notice to all trailer parks, mobile home owners, and residents in low lying and coastal areas. All RV and camp grounds are required to close at 3 pm this afternoon. Walton County’s beaches will be closed at 6 pm tonight.



A shelter will be manned by the American Red Cross and available at Freeport High School for both the general population and those with special needs at 3 pm today. Animals are not accepted at the shelter.



It is important to remember the following:

· Follow guidelines set forth by the Walton County Emergency Management officials;

· Have a disaster kit ready with at least a 2 to 3 day supply of food and water, flashlights, batteries;

· Fill your car with gas and have extra cash.

· Monitor local media for weather and updates from the EOC;

· Individuals living in low-lying areas that are prone to flooding should review their evacuation plan.

· Residents living in mobile homes should plan to take shelter.





The EOC is working with state and local agencies to ensure the safety of Walton County Citizens.

kurt

Just_In_Thyme

Have they ordered a mandatory evacution of Walton County?

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Demetrios

kurt

As a precaution, Walton County is declaring a Local State of Emergency and issuing a Volunteer Evacuation Notice to all trailer parks, mobile home owners, and residents in low lying and coastal areas. All RV and camp grounds are required to close at 3 pm this afternoon. Walton County’s beaches will be closed at 6 pm tonight.

Smiling JOe

Seaside 6:00pm Fri - Beaches Closed

(you will find a few more photos from today in my photo album)

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kurt

Thanks - I was just wishing I was down there.

seagrovelover

I hope this one passes you by.......

Smiling JOe

I hope so too. I have very little gas in my cars, no extra dog food, no bottled water, no batteries (but nothing for them to go into anyway), no food stored, etc. About the only thing I do have is a couple of life jackets which I may use if the water rises high enough that I can paddle my canoe down the street to the Gulf. I am really not expecting much from this storm -- Maybe a bit of rain and lightning, which is always exciting.

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Smiling JOe

The latest from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ARLENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI JUN 10 2005

...RECENT DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS...AND THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ARLENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT
OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES... MAINLY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER....

__________________

kurt

If it stays on track, I pity those poor folk in P-cola. They've had enough already.

Beachfamily

I am just checking to see how things are from Destin to Rosemary Beach
I am sure nobody has power
Be safe

Kokomo Joe

Power is not out, it's barely raining. Surf's up though, and looks like we'll lose more sand.

kurt

Hi guys - breezy and rainy is all for now.

JustBeachy

Good to hear, Kurt..we are headed down, supposedly, tomorrow. Watching the Weather Channel and beyond thrilled to not see Stephanie Abrams, bless her heart.

Nan,formerly known as BlueMountainBeacher

kurt

"watch out, watch out, WATCH OUT!"

JustBeachy

Found a few hurricane haiku's. I especially liked the last one!

lenzoe

Looks like surf's up from the beach cams. Anybody been to the beach this morning? Wondering if the surf's making it up to those un-vegetated piles of sand yet.

kurt

DeFuniak Springs, FL –Tropical Storm Arlene continues toward the Gulf Coast. This storm is expected to make landfall later this afternoon. Sustained winds are presently at 70 mph.



A tropical storm warning and tornado watch are currently in effect along the Gulf Coast. A flood watch is also in effect. Rain will continue throughout the day and rainfall will be in the 5 to 8 inch range, with heavier amounts possible. This could cause flooding of low lying areas.



Residents should remain home, if possible, and stay off the roads. It is unsafe to travel due to the heavy rainfall and high wind conditions.



The Emergency Operation Center was activated Friday evening and will remain in activation until the storm has cleared the area. Citizen’s information lines have been set-up at the EOC to assist concerned citizens. The emergency information lines, 892-8392 or 892-8394, are currently operating. The Emergency Operations Center number is 892-8065.



Walton County has declared a Local State of Emergency and has issued a Volunteer Evacuation Notice to all trailer parks, mobile home owners, and residents in low lying and coastal areas. All RV and camp grounds should be closed at this time.



Walton County’s beaches are closed until further notice. Storm surge will be about 3 to 5 feet above normal, causing beach erosion and some coastal flooding.



It is important to remember rip currents often occur before, during and after a hurricane. Do not attempt to go to the beach and swim or surf. Heavy surf conditions combined with rip currently produce dangerous and often fatal conditions.



At the present time tropical storm force winds on the Clyde B. Wells over the Choctawhatchee Bay are approximately 30 mph. There are no plans to close the bridge at this time but residents are reminded the bridge is closed when winds reach 40 mph and local radio and TV stations should be monitored for updates from the EOC.



A shelter is manned by the American Red Cross and available at Freeport High School for both the general population and those with special needs. Animals are not accepted at the shelter.

beachmouse

Somewhat windy but otherwise quiet in Bluewater Bay. No utility problems, but then we never lost power or cable from Ivan either. Rain's pretty much an occasional drizzle. We're planning on heading down towards Destin for lunch later. (and bonus! no tolls on the Mid-Bay Bridge until 5:00pm tonight)

The non-tropical storms we got in early April were actually a lot worse.

Seasider

9am Report from Seaside:

The storm center is supposed to move over the coast near Pensacola about 2 pm. We have had very little wind, about 2 inches of rain, even some breaks and sun,but the surf is pounding. High tide isn't expected until noon. The currents are ripping the beach from east to west. Our first level of defense ( the hurricane fences) that are nearest the water have been ripped out. Water is under the walkover at Tupelo and lapping the stairs all the way down the beach but so far they look ok.I just wish this thing would hurry up and go....I am sure TJ is already back here checking on things. He was working battening down the hatches himself all over town until late yesterday. One good thing is our seaoats have had so much water this spring they appear to have caught , are green and growing.. I just wish they had had a little more time before storm season got underway.

southof30A

Greetings from Seacrest Beach. Overall wind and rain has not been too bad yet. Beach has eroded about 5' deep. Most sand fence is history. Starting to see more lumber floating by in the last 1/2 hour.

Landlocked

Are the dune lakes likely to wash out during this thing?

__________________
I know I don't get there often enough,
but God knows I surely try
It's a magic kind of medicine,
that no doctor could prescribe.

Cavallino

Here are some Pics

http://share.shutterfly.com/action/s...&x=1&sm=1&sl=1

landlord

Cavallino, Excellent photos, thanks. When and where were they taken? We have a house on 30-A at Seaside. My friend's family is going to stay at our house for the week. they will arrive there tomorrow.

lenzoe

Thanks for the pics. Where are these shots from?

For live streaming video from Gulf Shores, check out:

http://www.hurricanetrack.com

Seasider

The new Natchez stairs at Seaside appear to be suffering heavy damage.

kurt

Thanks!

Looks like the water has receded some since you were out.

kurt

Oh yeah they're all open.

Just_In_Thyme

How have the beachwalkovers fared? They can't have sustained the damage they did from Ivan.

__________________
Demetrios

Cavallino

I was out there around 11:30-12:15

The shots are taken at WaterColor Beach Club walkover and then at Seaside.

The few from WaterSound were taken around 10am this morning.

Doug